Don’t Misplay Your Hand Thinking a “10 is Due” Here is my short introduction to Probability
Theory as it applies to gambling. Most people shoot themselves in
the foot by misinterpreting the odds while playing blackjack. Suppose you walk up to a
table where the dealer has just finished shuffling his six decks. You take a seat at third base and put a bet
up on each of two spots. You're fully aware that a six-deck shoe contains 96
tens out of 312 cards, but you have no idea exactly where those 96 tens
lie. Now the first round of cards is dealt
to four other players besides yourself.
Let's say everybody is dealt a bunch of small cards and the dealer has a
deuce up. Suppose further that each
player before you takes one hit and catches yet another small card. Now it's your turn. Your first hand is 8/4 and your second hand
is 8/3. Seventeen cards have been
exposed and not a single ten has been seen yet.
The question is, how should you play your hands ?
Should you simply follow basic strategy and hit your 12, then double
with your 11 -- or should you save the impending ten for your 11 by just
standing on your 12 ? You realize that the appearance of a ten is
growing imminently likely, but here's the key question. Which card is more likely to be a ten -- the
next card in the shoe, or the one after it ?
This is where
most players misinterpret the laws of probability, and misplay their hand.
As the dealer I can see their eyeballs scanning all the cards on the
table before deciding what to do. The
information you get from scanning the cards is meaningless. Yes, the cards are in random order, but
remember that random does not mean “Homogenized”. You are much better off referring to your
strategy card and ignoring the previous cards that came out of the shoe. It is difficult to attempt to explain all of
this to you while still at the table……
So I try to do it here….
When the shuffled cards first went into the shoe, 30% of them were
tens. Since nobody knew their order,
every next card had a 30% chance of being a ten. Now, after seventeen straight non-tens were
dealt, 32% of the remaining cards are tens.
But again, since their order is unknown, every next card now simply has
a 32% chance to be a ten. As hard as it
may be to accept, the next card is absolutely no more likely to be a ten than
the one after it -- or any other for that matter.
For those of you who are not buying this, let me phrase it another
way. Suppose that just before you
decided how to play your two hands, the dealer reached into the shoe and
reversed the order of the next two cards.
Which card is more likely to be the ten now ? Remember, the cards were shuffled into an
unknown order before, and all that's happening is that they're being shuffled
once more.
Now, I know what most of you are thinking. You're saying, "C'mon, a ten has got to
be coming. I mean, what are the odds of
dealing 18 cards in a row with no tens ?" Well, I'll tell you what those odds are.
They're 942-to-1 against, but that's before you deal the first card. Do you know what the odds are after you've
already seen the first seventeen non-tens ? They're a little over 2-to-1 in favor of the
eighteenth non-ten. That's right -- and
it's all because only 32% of the remaining shuffled cards are tens.
Let me try to get you to see this concept with one more common
example--this one from the game draw poker.
What do you suppose your odds are of being dealt a flush on your first
five cards ?
They're 504-to-1 against. But
suppose that after looking at your first four cards, they're all spades. What are your chances of being dealt a flush now ? They're just a
little more than 4-to-1 against.
Why ?
Because you've already got the first four parts. Being dealt a pat flush before any cards are
dealt and getting that flush after you're already holding a four-flush are two
completely different things. Likewise,
dealing eighteen straight non-tens in blackjack before the first card is dealt
is a huge longshot, but if you've already seen the
first seventeen--it's actually likely.
So remember, when you see a string of high or low cards come
out at the blackjack table, don't misplay your hand by assuming that the next
card is more likely to be a certain type than the one after it. As long as there are at least two cards
left, this is never true.
I have been a blackjack dealer in
Among the most common mistakes I see are: Failing to hit from fear of busting. Not paying attention to the dealer up-card
and doubling down and splitting at every opportunity. Also mistakes are; Failing to take advantage
of ideal situations and doubling down when they should. And assuming the dealer’s hole card is always
a ten.
Please do some homework about the game and how to
play to win. Visit some of the
informational websites that you can refer to through my website listed
below. Far too many sit down and play
with real money who are not prepared to do so. They play poorly then curse the dealer for
not giving them the lucky cards they felt they were due.
In Blackjack, play your own hand. What somebody else does with their hand (or
fails to do) is just as likely to help you as hurt you. Gambling is entertainment. An important part of my job is to help you
have fun. When I am able I always try to
initiate conversation among the players.
Enjoy my company and the company of the other players. Have a few laughs.
If you have received courteous service then please
tip. Tips are important for the
dealers. Dealers are service employees
who get minimum wage from the casino.
The lion’s share (75 %) of our income comes from the tips from our
players. There are far too many players
who fail to tip, even after winning. A
good guide is half of your average bet per every hour regardless if you are
winning or losing.
Visit Rob Roy’s POKER page. Strategy Card for
Spanish 21
Rob Roy’s
favorite blackjack websites:
Wizard of Odds Math & BJ Links Play free online blackjack
Blackjack at Home Blackjack Rules Free Blackjack Game
Hit or Stand.Net All About Blackjack Virtual
Blackjack
Future of Blackjack Blackjack Downloads BJ
Review Network
Intro Probability Theory House of
Blackjack Connecticut Casinos
Wikipedia Blackjack FAQ United States Casinos
Blackjack
began in early 1700’s in
In
1931, gambling became legal in
In
the 1970's, Ken Uston and his merry band of creative
gamblers used hidden computers to win hundreds of thousands of dollars. Their ingenuity attracted the attention of
the FBI, which examined the computers and decided that they were not cheating
devices, and therefore were fair and legal.
Players rushed to apply the lessons of Uston's
method, but many casinos decided to adopt a multi-deck system of play, which
complicated methods to improve the player's chances.
Visit my website
www.RobRoy8.com for free Strategy Cards on Blackjack and
Spanish 21. Visit my website to link
with the most popular and informative websites, such as “Wizard of Odds” “Hit or Stand.Net”
and “House of Blackjack”. Practice “Virtual Blackjack”
for free. Read “Introduction to
Probability Theory as it applies for gambling”.
My website is also home to “